What U.S. Investors Can Expect From ECB QE

The European Central Bank is finally putting action behind its words. More than two years after proclaiming they would do “whatever it takes to preserve the euro”, ECB President Mario Draghi revealed on Thursday that the central bank would be coordinating a plan to purchase assets totaling 60 billion euros per month. Investment markets rejoiced immediately following the announcement that the last major central bank has finally joined the quantitative easing game. But not all asset purchase programs are created equal. As a result, it is reasonable to consider exactly what U.S. investors can expect from the ECB’s QE program moving forward.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Will The ECB Kill The Gold Rally?

The European Central Bank is expected to take the latest “extraordinary” step in global monetary policy by announcing its own quantitative easing program on Thursday. One would reasonably think that the further debasing of a global fiat currency system that has only been in place for less than half of a century and has already been debauched beyond comprehension in the years since the outbreak of the financial crisis would be a tremendous boon for gold. And in recent weeks, it appears that gold has been gearing up for the big announcement. But in one of the many counterintuitive outcomes in this unusual post crisis investment world, recent history has shown that gold has performed very poorly in the wake of these extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy announcements.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Is The Market To Be Hanged In A Fortnight?

It is a fortnight filled with events that have the potential to meaningfully shape the future direction of the market. Four separate episodes are set to play out over a current two week period, with each in isolation having major implications on how capital markets are likely to perform for the remainder of 2015 and beyond. The fact that they are all converging together at the same time only amplifies their potential impact. And unfortunately for investors, the risks associated with these events are currently tilted to the downside. The markets may not be hanged in a fortnight, but the mere fact that risk levels are elevated with so much unfolding over just two weeks should keep investor minds particularly concentrated as events continue to unfold.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Expect The Unexpected

It is the peril of today’s capital markets. Markets should be generally predictable. One should be able to rigorously apply fundamental and technical analysis in order to establish rational expectations for reasonable market outcomes over time. But such are not the markets in which we have been operating since the outbreak of the financial crisis nearly a decade ago. Instead, global capital markets have become increasingly burden by the capriciousness of human decision making by global policy makers and central bank leaders. And while the persistent generosity of these decision makers including their inability to deny the markets of any discomfort has certainly been a boon over the last several years, it may ultimately serve as an even greater detriment in the end. For while fundamentals and technicals are reasonably predictable over time, human decision making certainly is not, particularly when these once generous policy makers finally run out of options. As a result, investors should increasingly prepare to expect the unexpected as we continue through 2015 and beyond.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

2015 Outlook: Pain

The U.S. stock market has provided a blissful time for investors over the last several years. It has been almost six years now since the turmoil of the financial crisis dissipated. And with each passing year, U.S. stock market volatility has become less and less as the financial crisis starts to become an increasingly distant memory. But that may all be about to change as we enter into 2015. In fact, the change may already be underway. After so many comfortable years, a new challenge has finally arrived for the U.S. stock market. Thus, my market prediction for 2015: Pain.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

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