Is It Safe?

Watching capital markets on Monday morning felt like getting a cavity drilled by a mad dentist. In short, it was painful and ugly. But beyond the widespread losses, another important development surfaced on Monday morning. In addition to major moves to the downside, we also witnesses some deeply troubling dislocations in the pricing of a variety of exchange traded funds. Sure, we are in the seventh year of a roaring bull market and the gains have been fantastic all along the way. But given some of the things we saw this morning, it is reasonable to wonder whether it is truly safe for investors in capital markets today.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Stocks: Perspectives On The Selloff

Global stock markets took a beating this week. U.S. stocks were part of the sharp decline including the benchmark S&P 500 Index, which unlike its global counterparts has been remarkably resilient up to this point. But given the pace of the sell off this past week and particularly over the last two trading days on Thursday and Friday, it’s reasonable to consider what we might expect from here.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

A Bear Market Has 2 Phases

The U.S. stock market has struggled to break out to new highs since late last year. And with the bull market already long by historical standards at a time when corporate earnings have stalled and monetary policy may soon be tightening, the specter has been rising that stocks may eventually break to the downside and threaten to enter into a new bear market. But if such an outcome were to come to pass, it is important to recognize that the market does not just simply fall to the downside all at once. Bear markets tend to be more nuanced. This includes the fact that they almost always have two phases. And this point is critical for investors seeking to position for any such future outcome.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Beware The Death Cross?

A most ominous event came to pass this week. For the first time in four years, we witnessed a “death cross” in the broader U.S. stock market. The mere name alone may cause investors to think that they should be taking action. After all, if we are reading about a death cross in the business news headlines, it certainly can’t be a good thing, right? While a death cross is widely considered a bearish signal that stocks are about to break lower, this is not necessarily the case when examining these episodes from a historical perspective. This does not mean that it should be completely ignored, but at a minimum it must be taken in context.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Biotech: Will There Be Blood?

The health care sector has been a stellar performer since the outbreak of the financial crisis. The traditionally defensive sector held up better as stocks descended lower, and they have more than kept up the pace during the bull market over the last six years. A primary driver of this strong performance has been the biotech sector. But after an exceptionally strong run in recent years, it is worthwhile to consider whether this performance may have been a bit too good. In other words, is the biotech sector set up to bleed when the new bear market finally gets underway? And could it pull the health care sector down with it?

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.


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