September Or December: When Will The Fed Boost Rates?

As the summer quickly passes by and we head toward the fall, investors are increasingly turning their attention to the U.S. Federal Reserve. In one of the most deliberately managed and carefully broadcasted yet still somewhat suspenseful economic events in many years, the Fed is preparing to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. The move is significant because the Fed will be attempting to raise interest rates off of the so-called zero bound without shocking capital markets. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. And given the perceived importance of the event on the markets and investor portfolio, it is worthwhile to consider how to best monitor the Fed’s next move.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Bond Rout: Time To Run Or Time To Buy?

The global bond market has been taking it on the chin lately. After reaching historic lows in many parts of the globe only a few weeks ago, bond yields have suddenly exploded higher. This sharp and sudden move has raised questions as to whether we are finally arriving at the point where the long anticipated global bond market correction is finally about to get underway. But while the moves have been big in recent weeks and investors are right to be paying close attention, another question that investors may also be well served to consider is whether it may soon be a good time to buy following the recent pullback.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

U.S. Stocks: Oh Behave!

The U.S. stock market continues to behave remarkably well. Such persistent resilience among U.S. stocks is notable for a bull market that recently entered its seventh year of largely uninterrupted gains since the quelling of the financial crisis in early 2009. And as long as the uptrend remains intact, investors are best served to respect it until warning signals emerge to confirm that definitive change in trend may actually be taking place. With this downside risk in mind, it should be noted that headwinds continue to accumulate for this market with each passing week, so investors are equally well served to avoid becoming complacent as we continue through 2015.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

The Fed Trade That’s Money In The Bank

Global markets breathed a collective sigh of relief this week. On Wednesday, many investors were expecting that the U.S. Federal Reserve would emerge from their latest Open Market Committee meeting with hawkish suggestions that interest rates would be on the rise perhaps as early as June. But once the statement was released and Chair Yellen took to the podium with downward revised economic growth forecasts, investors took these more dovish tones as a signal that Fed rate hikes would be coming much later than originally expected. Market euphoria ensued from 2PM on and continued through the remainder of the week across virtually all asset classes including stocks, bonds and commodities. But not every corner of capital markets were pleased at the prospects for Fed rate restraint. And this sliver of differentiation may provide a particularly useful trade for investors once the inevitable Fed rate hikes finally get underway.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Lessons From Another Tough Week & The Big Day Ahead

It was another challenging week for the market. Overall, risk assets across various market segments moved steadily lower throughout the week. And those that had been heavily punished the prior week mostly struggled to find their footing. Capital markets are notably weak heading into the main event looming in the coming week. This, of course, is the latest meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, which is expected to set the table for raising interest rates in the coming months. Given the market dependence on central bank liquidity, it is a meeting this Tuesday and Wednesday that has the potential to set the tone for the markets throughout the spring and into the summer.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

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