The Madness Of Mr. Market

Capital markets have been full of flummery over the last several years. This has included an enthusiastic chorus of analysts and experts that repeatedly shower investors with flattering tales of sustained economic growth and promises of a new era of prolonged prosperity in the wake of the financial crisis that erupted so many years ago now. But like Mr. Fox and many others investors that are more skeptical about the current state of the global economy and its capital markets, I am much more inclined toward a good balance sheet at the sovereign, corporate and household level. I am also inclined toward things that make rational sense. And after searching throughout history, I have yet to discover an example of a major society that defeated a financial crisis caused from too much debt by undertaking even more debt and debauching their currency. But such is the environment in which we are operating today. And it has resulted in some nonsensical disconnects that have the potential to resolve in a very painful way for some investors once reality finally returns.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

The Naked Truth

A steady barrage of economic and market news clogs both our airwaves and our minds on a continuous basis. This information is dissected and examined in a variety of different ways with no shortage of expert opinions about what is taking place today in investment markets and what is likely to happen next come tomorrow. As a result, it can become very easy for even the most expert market participant to become so twisted around in the details of their own views and biases that they lose sight of the more basic bigger picture. For it is these simple naked truths that remain most important in recognizing what has brought us to this point as well as what is likely to come.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

U.S. Stocks: Oh Behave!

The U.S. stock market continues to behave remarkably well. Such persistent resilience among U.S. stocks is notable for a bull market that recently entered its seventh year of largely uninterrupted gains since the quelling of the financial crisis in early 2009. And as long as the uptrend remains intact, investors are best served to respect it until warning signals emerge to confirm that definitive change in trend may actually be taking place. With this downside risk in mind, it should be noted that headwinds continue to accumulate for this market with each passing week, so investors are equally well served to avoid becoming complacent as we continue through 2015.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

The Fed Trade That’s Money In The Bank

Global markets breathed a collective sigh of relief this week. On Wednesday, many investors were expecting that the U.S. Federal Reserve would emerge from their latest Open Market Committee meeting with hawkish suggestions that interest rates would be on the rise perhaps as early as June. But once the statement was released and Chair Yellen took to the podium with downward revised economic growth forecasts, investors took these more dovish tones as a signal that Fed rate hikes would be coming much later than originally expected. Market euphoria ensued from 2PM on and continued through the remainder of the week across virtually all asset classes including stocks, bonds and commodities. But not every corner of capital markets were pleased at the prospects for Fed rate restraint. And this sliver of differentiation may provide a particularly useful trade for investors once the inevitable Fed rate hikes finally get underway.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Lessons From Another Tough Week & The Big Day Ahead

It was another challenging week for the market. Overall, risk assets across various market segments moved steadily lower throughout the week. And those that had been heavily punished the prior week mostly struggled to find their footing. Capital markets are notably weak heading into the main event looming in the coming week. This, of course, is the latest meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, which is expected to set the table for raising interest rates in the coming months. Given the market dependence on central bank liquidity, it is a meeting this Tuesday and Wednesday that has the potential to set the tone for the markets throughout the spring and into the summer.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

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