The Fed Trade That’s Money In The Bank

Global markets breathed a collective sigh of relief this week. On Wednesday, many investors were expecting that the U.S. Federal Reserve would emerge from their latest Open Market Committee meeting with hawkish suggestions that interest rates would be on the rise perhaps as early as June. But once the statement was released and Chair Yellen took to the podium with downward revised economic growth forecasts, investors took these more dovish tones as a signal that Fed rate hikes would be coming much later than originally expected. Market euphoria ensued from 2PM on and continued through the remainder of the week across virtually all asset classes including stocks, bonds and commodities. But not every corner of capital markets were pleased at the prospects for Fed rate restraint. And this sliver of differentiation may provide a particularly useful trade for investors once the inevitable Fed rate hikes finally get underway.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Lessons From Another Tough Week & The Big Day Ahead

It was another challenging week for the market. Overall, risk assets across various market segments moved steadily lower throughout the week. And those that had been heavily punished the prior week mostly struggled to find their footing. Capital markets are notably weak heading into the main event looming in the coming week. This, of course, is the latest meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, which is expected to set the table for raising interest rates in the coming months. Given the market dependence on central bank liquidity, it is a meeting this Tuesday and Wednesday that has the potential to set the tone for the markets throughout the spring and into the summer.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Friday’s Sell-Off: Assessing The Damage And Opportunities

Capital markets demonstrated clearly on Friday how upside down the investment world has become so many years after the outbreak of the financial crisis. Following the parade of generally disappointing U.S. economic news throughout the past month, investors were treated to a blockbuster February employment report that exceeded expectations. But instead of providing a lift to the markets, the positive news that the U.S. economy was adding jobs at a faster rate than anticipated sent investment markets reeling across the board. In the end, Friday was the worst trading day for stocks since January 5. But with such sell-offs, it is worthwhile to both assess the damage as well as consider the opportunities for what might lie ahead.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

The King Of Pain

King dollar is back on the throne. How long its reign lasts this time around remains to be seen, but a number of indications suggest that it could last at least into the summer if not longer. Whether the resurgence of the U.S. dollar is a positive sign for the U.S. economy and the stock market is subject to debate. But its rise has certainly come with a vengeance across many asset classes.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Gold Is In A Bull Market & Stocks Are In A Bear Market

It sounds completely preposterous. In fact, it almost sounds idiotic. How could it possibly be that gold is in a bull market and stocks are in a bear market right now? After all, gold has been beaten badly over the last few years, while U.S. stocks have been on a tear since the end of last decade. Yes, stocks are in a bull market and gold is in a bear market from a cyclical perspective. But when one stands back from the trees and looks at the longer-term forest, a very different picture presents itself.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.


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