Friday’s Stock Sell-Off And The Fed’s Epic Fail

The U.S. Federal Reserve had four possible outcomes coming out of their latest FOMC meeting on Thursday. And it seems that the Fed may have ended up with the worst possible result.  Not only did the Fed potentially forgo their last reasonable opportunity to get off of the zero bound and squeeze in an interest rate increase for a future rainy economic day, but they may have also unwittingly sparked a new wave of downside stock market volatility that they have been so tediously careful to avoid over the last several years.  At least so far, the stock market has voted down the Fed’s latest decision. But now that the chatter and uncertainty about whether the Fed is going to raise interest rates is behind us at least for the next few weeks, what exactly can we reasonably expect from capital markets from here?

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Pangaean Rhapsody

Are investment markets living the real life today? Or is this just a fantasy? Financial markets nearly collapsed seven years ago, but here we are today with the crisis becoming an increasingly distant memory. Are we living the real life of a global economy that is truly on the mend with only a matter of time before the elusive phase of sustained economic growth finally sets in? Or has the recovery we have experienced since the crisis been nothing more than a fantasy conjured up by global policy makers and their unwavering commitment to inject stimulus no matter what the future costs? In the end, there will be no escape from reality. Global central banks are now essentially all in, and it is now only a matter of time before we begin to find out whether this has all been real or fantasy. Whether investors are eventually caught in a landslide remains to be seen, but now more than ever is the time to avoid complacency and to keep your eyes wide open when it comes to monitoring investment markets today.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Lessons From The Golden Bear

Gold has been a dreadful performer in recent years. Since peaking at over $1900 per ounce in September 2011, the price has fallen by nearly -40% over the four years since. But after such a deep and prolonged price decline, and given concerns about the continued sustainability of the current bull market in stocks that is already the third longest in history at over six years, it is reasonable to consider whether it may be worth considering either a new or increased allocation to gold for portfolio diversification and risk control purposes. In working to draw any such conclusions, it is worthwhile to first evaluate whether it even makes fundamental sense from a supply and demand perspective to do so.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

The Madness Of Mr. Market

Capital markets have been full of flummery over the last several years. This has included an enthusiastic chorus of analysts and experts that repeatedly shower investors with flattering tales of sustained economic growth and promises of a new era of prolonged prosperity in the wake of the financial crisis that erupted so many years ago now. But like Mr. Fox and many others investors that are more skeptical about the current state of the global economy and its capital markets, I am much more inclined toward a good balance sheet at the sovereign, corporate and household level. I am also inclined toward things that make rational sense. And after searching throughout history, I have yet to discover an example of a major society that defeated a financial crisis caused from too much debt by undertaking even more debt and debauching their currency. But such is the environment in which we are operating today. And it has resulted in some nonsensical disconnects that have the potential to resolve in a very painful way for some investors once reality finally returns.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

The Naked Truth

A steady barrage of economic and market news clogs both our airwaves and our minds on a continuous basis. This information is dissected and examined in a variety of different ways with no shortage of expert opinions about what is taking place today in investment markets and what is likely to happen next come tomorrow. As a result, it can become very easy for even the most expert market participant to become so twisted around in the details of their own views and biases that they lose sight of the more basic bigger picture. For it is these simple naked truths that remain most important in recognizing what has brought us to this point as well as what is likely to come.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.


Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 9,041 other followers