Oil: The Wildfire Spreads

The fires continue to burn in the oil sector. The operational environment in the energy space has become increasingly challenged since the summer of 2014 when oil prices began their descent from over $100 a barrel to just over $40 today. Many of the more leveraged oil companies have been staking their survival on the hopes that oil prices would recover sooner rather than later. The longer that oil prices persist near cycle lows, the more likely it is that a wave of defaults from the sector will eventually follow. But what is perhaps more notable is the following: what was once a problem that was largely confined to the commodities space is now spreading to other sectors of the market.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Winners And Losers Since The Bull Market Peak

The U.S. stock market is currently in correction. And given that we are now more than four months removed from the last time the S&P 500 Index set a new high, it’s worthwhile to consider the following question. Is it possible that a new multi-year bear market is already well underway? Only time will tell. But if indeed market historians someday look back on 2015 in the same way that they do 2000 and 2007, it’s worthwhile to consider the particular segments of capital markets that are following the stock market to the downside and perhaps more importantly those that may already be assuming the lead to the upside.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

High Yield Bonds: Mounting Threats

The high yield bond market is coming under increasing threat on a variety of fronts. But despite these mounting pressures, the high yield bond market at least thus far has shown resilience. How much longer this can last remains to be seen, however. A sustained correction in the high yield bond market may also provide an important signal about what may follow in the broader U.S. stock market.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.


Anticipation Is Worse Than Reality

We have seen this story before in the post crisis period. Bond yields start rising amid the swelling expectation that any of the following events are soon to take place: a long awaited sustained economic recovery, a sustained rise in inflationary pricing pressures, and/or a sustained rise in central bank interest rates. During each past episode, interest rate segments of capital markets struggle with the anticipation. But once the eventual reality finally sets in, these segments suddenly find themselves rallying and more than making up for any lost ground in the process. Today, investors once again find themselves experiencing the latest act in this repeated performance. And it is likely that events will play out similarly this time around too.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Bond Rout: Time To Run Or Time To Buy?

The global bond market has been taking it on the chin lately. After reaching historic lows in many parts of the globe only a few weeks ago, bond yields have suddenly exploded higher. This sharp and sudden move has raised questions as to whether we are finally arriving at the point where the long anticipated global bond market correction is finally about to get underway. But while the moves have been big in recent weeks and investors are right to be paying close attention, another question that investors may also be well served to consider is whether it may soon be a good time to buy following the recent pullback.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.


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