Lessons From Another Tough Week & The Big Day Ahead

It was another challenging week for the market. Overall, risk assets across various market segments moved steadily lower throughout the week. And those that had been heavily punished the prior week mostly struggled to find their footing. Capital markets are notably weak heading into the main event looming in the coming week. This, of course, is the latest meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, which is expected to set the table for raising interest rates in the coming months. Given the market dependence on central bank liquidity, it is a meeting this Tuesday and Wednesday that has the potential to set the tone for the markets throughout the spring and into the summer.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Gold: Will War Soon Be Over?

The war rages on for gold. It has been nearly three and a half years now since gold reached its cyclical bull market peak in September 2011. Since that time, the price drop in the yellow metal has been almost unyielding. But after a disastrous year for gold in 2013, it has been making slow and steady progress in working toward a bottom in the more than a year since. Many challenges remain, but we may soon be approaching a final bottom in gold after several years of turmoil.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

The Bull In Winter

All good things must come to an end. This includes the current bull market in U.S. stocks. At nearly six years, it already ranks among the longest in history. And it has taken place during a time of heightened geopolitical and economic stress. A new bear market will eventually get underway. The only question is exactly when this change will take place. Whether it is in three years, later this year or has already begun remains to be seen. But a number of forces are increasingly converging that suggest that the demise of the graying bull market may now be drawing close. And no amount of cunning by global policy makers will be able to cheat death in the end.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Will The ECB Kill The Gold Rally?

The European Central Bank is expected to take the latest “extraordinary” step in global monetary policy by announcing its own quantitative easing program on Thursday. One would reasonably think that the further debasing of a global fiat currency system that has only been in place for less than half of a century and has already been debauched beyond comprehension in the years since the outbreak of the financial crisis would be a tremendous boon for gold. And in recent weeks, it appears that gold has been gearing up for the big announcement. But in one of the many counterintuitive outcomes in this unusual post crisis investment world, recent history has shown that gold has performed very poorly in the wake of these extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy announcements.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

2014’s Trash Could Be 2015’s Treasure

It has been another strong year for U.S. stocks in 2014. But a number of more specialized asset classes and categories posted performance that notably outperformed the S&P 500 Index by a fairly wide margin this year. And in many cases, those categories that landed at the top of the leader board in 2014 were many of the same categories that languished at or near the bottom last year in 2013. Thus, it is reasonable to consider those asset classes and categories that are limping to the finish line in 2014, for some might end up as winners in 2015.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

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