The Nifty Fifty Of 2016

To say that the U.S. stock market has stumbled out of the gates in 2016 is an understatement. By some measures, it has been the worst start to a calendar year for stocks in history. But even with the S&P 500 Index having fallen by as much as -11% and still down nearly -7% for the year to date through Tuesday, the good news is not all stocks have joined in the move to the downside. In fact, fifty out of the 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index are actually higher for the year to date. And taking a look at the composition of this small list of winners is instructive as to what we might expect from different segments of the market if the selling continues with fits and starts through the remainder of 2016.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Are You Experienced?

It has certainly been a difficult start to the New Year. The major U.S. stock market indices are already down double-digits across the board, and the pressure in the market remains decisively to the downside. It has been many years now since investors have had to endure the degree of downside that we are witnessing today thanks to extended efforts to support asset prices and dampen financial market volatility, but such downside shifts in stock prices were not only normal but also expected to periodically take place over time. Given that it has been nearly a decade now since the market has been allowed to behave the way that it is today, a great many investors have likely entered stocks for the first time in the years since and may not know what to make of the current situation or how to react to it. Are you experienced?

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Stocks: Worst Week Ever, Better Days Ahead

The U.S. stock market got off to its worst start to a calendar year in history. In the first five days of 2016, the S&P 500 Index plunged by -6%. Following this latest of many unprecedented market events during the post crisis period, it is worthwhile to consider what we should expect from here from financial markets.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Breaking Down The Bull

The seemingly relentless bull market that is running at nearly seven years and counting has been frustratingly elusive for some investors. For while the stock market has risen so impressively from its lows in March 2009, a number of stock investors find themselves lamenting the feeling that somehow they have missed out on much of the gains. And this comes despite the fact that they have been actively allocated to stocks in their investment portfolios throughout much of the post crisis period. How can this possibly be? Because the post crisis gains in the stock market have not been as continuous and uniform as they are now widely viewed in retrospect. In fact, a vast majority of the post crisis upside in the stock market has been confined to two very specific periods along the way. And if you missed these two distinct stretches, you missed most everything in the post crisis rally.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Projecting The Market Response To The Fed This Week

The Federal Open Market Committee convenes for its upcoming meeting on Wednesday and Thursday of this week. In play at this meeting to discuss U.S. monetary policy is whether the Fed will raise interest rates for the first time in a decade with a quarter point increase off of the zero bound. The market promises to be completely transfixed by this gathering that will culminate with a post meeting press conference by Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday afternoon, not long after the meeting statement is released at 2PM. So given the importance of this upcoming meeting to investors, exactly what can we reasonably expect from the stock market in the coming week both leading up to and following the meeting and press conference? If history is any guide, the stock market may be setting up for a positive week regardless of how the Fed moves.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.


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