The Event That Will End The Bull Market

The stock market is trading within 2% of its all-time peak reached at the beginning of April. And following an impressive bull market that recently entered its sixth year, it seems that the trauma that was the financial crisis is becoming a distant memory. Of course, the stock market did not achieve its miraculous recovery all on its own. Instead, it had the generous and ongoing support of the U.S. Federal Reserve for much of the journey to recovery through its daily asset purchases as part of its various quantitative easing (QE) stimulus programs. With all of this in mind, the experience of the last few years raises a worthwhile question to ponder. Exactly what would the markets have looked like without QE? Exploring the answer to this question is particularly worthwhile, as it provides important insights into what to expect from the stock market once the Fed ends its latest QE3 stimulus program in the coming months. More significantly, it may provide important insights into how exactly the current bull market may finally come to an end.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Crisis In Ukraine: What It Means For U.S. Stocks

U.S. stock futures opened sharply lower on Sunday night following the news over the weekend that Russia had moved military forces into Ukraine to occupy the Crimean peninsula. The strong initial reaction by stock investors to the news in Ukraine raises an important question. Exactly how should we reasonably anticipate the U.S. stock market to react in the coming days as the situation in Ukraine unfolds? While today’s situation is defined by its own unique circumstances, recent history is instructive in providing us guidance as to what we might expect.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

How To Add Some Spice To Your Portfolio

McCormick is the undisputed giant in the global spices and seasonings industry. As investment markets struggle to digest the uncertainty that has come with increased volatility in the New Year, McCormick is a stock that offers investors a demonstrated track record of smooth and satisfying long-term results regardless of the market environment. And following a recent sharp pullback, it is now also offering investors a potentially zesty short-term total returns opportunity.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Disclosure: This article is for information purposes only. There are risks involved with investing including loss of principal. Gerring Capital Partners makes no explicit or implicit guarantee with respect to performance or the outcome of any investment or projections made. There is no guarantee that the goals of the strategies discussed by Gerring Capital Partners will be met.

Stocks In The Heat Of Battle

Stocks have managed an impressive bounce from their early Wednesday lows at 1737 on the S&P 500.  But after a strong 60 point surge to 1797 to close out the week, it is reasonable to wonder whether stocks have further to run higher in the coming days or if a fresh move lower lies ahead.  How stocks behave in the early part of this week will go a long way in answering this question, as stocks are currently trading in a thicket marked both by various support and resistance levels.

Slide10

Friday was a particularly notable trading day, as stocks smashed back through potential resistance at both the 100-day moving average and the 1775 level on the S&P 500.  As a result, the 1775 range represents the first line of defense for any reversal lower in stocks in the coming days, with the next stop at the upward sloping 150-day moving average currently at 1741 and rising.

Stocks also now have some meaningful challenges in continuing their move to the upside.  The first line of resistance is at the downward sloping 20-day moving average currently at 1802 and falling.  The next is at the 50-day moving average that just recently turned lower and is currently at 1809.  And the third is at 1813 on the S&P 500, which represented the previous all-time high for the index first reached back in late November and has served as both resistance and support on several different occasions since.

In short, stocks currently find themselves in a fairly tight range where a number of support and resistance levels have converged.  How stocks respond to these various levels over the next few trading days will go a long way in determining how the market is likely to move in the coming weeks.

Key Lessons For The Coming Bear Market

The stock market continues to behave in an orderly way. Following the recent -6% peak to trough correction on the S&P 500 Index, it appears the worst of the pullback may be behind us for now following a sharp upside reversal late last week that has characterized so many bounces in the post crisis period. But just because the market looks like it is once again on the mend does not mean that all is well. Investors were notably rattled during what was otherwise a mild correction over the last few weeks for good reason, as significant structural imbalances continue to fester underneath the global economic surface. And the latest warning shot across the market bow has provided important lessons for what we should expect and how we might position if and when these mounting pressures finally boil over into crisis.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 2,622 other followers