The Greatest Farce On Wall Street

It is an exercise that plays out every quarter with great fanfare. It is also a process to which the largest firms on Wall Street dedicate significant resources. And it serves as a primary information source that many experts and the media cite in valuing the market and projecting its future performance. It is the analysts’ earnings estimate game. And it is arguably the greatest farce on Wall Street.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Surveying The Stock Market Battle Lines

The U.S. stock market appears sound following another eventful week. After exploding to new all-time highs on Monday and Tuesday, stocks were turned back at the 1900 level on the S&P 500 Index and finished the week effectively flat from last Friday. But while the stock market uptrend remains firmly intact, signs of erosion continue to accumulate under the surface. And given that it has been an unusually long time since the stock market has endured a meaningful double-digit pullback, it is worthwhile to step back from the daily lens and survey the stock market battlefield from a much broader view in an effort to determine what might be coming in the days, weeks and months ahead.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

1900 Problems But A Lack Of Growth Ain’t One

The U.S. stock market appears to have hit a wall to the upside. After first making a run at the 1900 level on the S&P 500 Index in early March, stocks have struggled over the last two months to break out above this headline level. Whether they are able to successfully advance through to the upside remains to be seen, but I would consider such an outcome more than likely at this point simply because the uptrend in stocks remains intact. Perhaps what is even more notable, however, is that the core of the U.S. stock market continues its relentless advance to the upside when the long anticipated acceleration in economic growth fails to materialize in any meaningful way.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

The Event That Will End The Bull Market

The stock market is trading within 2% of its all-time peak reached at the beginning of April. And following an impressive bull market that recently entered its sixth year, it seems that the trauma that was the financial crisis is becoming a distant memory. Of course, the stock market did not achieve its miraculous recovery all on its own. Instead, it had the generous and ongoing support of the U.S. Federal Reserve for much of the journey to recovery through its daily asset purchases as part of its various quantitative easing (QE) stimulus programs. With all of this in mind, the experience of the last few years raises a worthwhile question to ponder. Exactly what would the markets have looked like without QE? Exploring the answer to this question is particularly worthwhile, as it provides important insights into what to expect from the stock market once the Fed ends its latest QE3 stimulus program in the coming months. More significantly, it may provide important insights into how exactly the current bull market may finally come to an end.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Crisis In Ukraine: What It Means For U.S. Stocks

U.S. stock futures opened sharply lower on Sunday night following the news over the weekend that Russia had moved military forces into Ukraine to occupy the Crimean peninsula. The strong initial reaction by stock investors to the news in Ukraine raises an important question. Exactly how should we reasonably anticipate the U.S. stock market to react in the coming days as the situation in Ukraine unfolds? While today’s situation is defined by its own unique circumstances, recent history is instructive in providing us guidance as to what we might expect.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.


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