Gold Is In A Bull Market & Stocks Are In A Bear Market

It sounds completely preposterous. In fact, it almost sounds idiotic. How could it possibly be that gold is in a bull market and stocks are in a bear market right now? After all, gold has been beaten badly over the last few years, while U.S. stocks have been on a tear since the end of last decade. Yes, stocks are in a bull market and gold is in a bear market from a cyclical perspective. But when one stands back from the trees and looks at the longer-term forest, a very different picture presents itself.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Can U.S. Stocks Four-Peat In 2015?

The U.S. stock market finds itself in rarefied territory as it enters 2015. For only the sixth time in the past 150 years, the U.S. stock market has registered a double-digit annualized gain for three consecutive calendar years from 2012 to 2014. This leads to the natural question – can the U.S. stock market score a four-peat in 2015 and register yet another year of double-digit annualized gains? While the sample size is certainly limited, history suggests such a feat could be a tough one to pull off.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Has QE3 Really Come To An End?

In October, the U.S. Federal Reserve carried out its final asset purchases as part of its latest asset purchase plan designed to help stimulate economic growth. This included the purchase of $10 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $5 billion in Mortgage Backed Securities in the final month. Given that the program is now over, it would be reasonable to expect that the Fed’s balance sheet would not longer be expanding in a meaningful way. But this has not been the case in the weeks since the end of the program. As a result, it is reasonable to question whether QE3 has really come to an end.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Playing Defense All Around The World

Many investors today are feeling conflicted. In one respect, they see a U.S. stock market that appears completely unyielding in its persistence to the upside despite the fact that we will soon be entering the sixth year of what is currently the third longest bull market in history. As a result, they want to participate in any further upside stocks have to offer. On the other hand, they see a stock market that will soon be entering the sixth year of a bull market on what has been more than dubious fundamentals all along and that has just now lost the monetary policy fuel from QE related asset purchases that helped propel it higher for so many years. Consequently, they are reluctant to participate any further amid the fear that they might be committing fresh capital to the market just as the graying bull market is finally coming to an end. What is the conflicted investor to do? One possibility is to consider playing defense all around the world.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Stocks: Considering Life Without The Fed ‘Put’

It is a belief that has been firmly ingrained in the minds of investors for nearly three decades. It is the Fed ‘Put’, which is the expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will intervene aggressively to support stock prices during any sustained correction or market crisis. But following nearly three decades of pursuing this monetary policy approach, it is reasonable to question whether the days of the Fed ‘Put’ may now be over under the direction of new Fed leadership. If this is indeed the case, it is worthwhile to consider the potential implications for the stock market going forward.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.


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