The Sky Is Never Falling

It is a sentiment that I sometimes see when writing a bearish commentary on the U.S. stock market. The most recent example came from a reader who commented on an article that I published this Tuesday: “The sky is always falling with these guys, greed makes money off fear”. I always appreciate the comments from my readers, even those that strongly disagree with my views. It is the vigorous discussion and interesting debate that comes in the comment section of the articles that makes Seeking Alpha so outstanding. And as for this comment, I felt it so worthwhile that it warranted its own article. The key point in response to this comment: The sky is never falling when it comes to investment markets.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

What About Bonds?

New Fed sheriffs are coming to town. And their arrival is expected to bring higher interest rates from the U.S. Federal Reserve. While many have concluded that this, along with increased inflation expectations, will bring the 35-year bull market in bonds to an end. But while it’s easy to declare that the bubble in bonds is going to burst – the investment highway is lined with many experts that have made this bold call over the past three and a half decades – what should we really expect for the bond market going forward?

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Popeye Goes To Washington

Enjoy the candy while it lasts. While it has received relatively less attention in the financial media since the election in early November, the new administration is likely to bring meaningful changes for the Federal Reserve and the direction of monetary policy going forward. And given that the primary driver of stock market gains throughout the post crisis period has been the aggressively easy and accommodative monetary policy from the Fed, the likely changes have the potential to completely transform what we should expect from investing in the U.S. stock market going forward.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

A Change We Can Start To Believe In

The post election stock market has been filled with various narratives that have largely proven unfounded when examining the underlying data. But one positive story that is substantive and is showing signs of potential sustainability is the improvement in corporate earnings. While stock valuations remain stretched beyond all recognition, at least we are finally seeing progress in profits once again working toward trying to fill this major market air pocket.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Capitalizing On The Interest Rate Outlook For 2017

It was right around this time last year that expectations were building about Fed policy in 2016. On the brink of raising interest rates in December 2015 for the first time in the post financial crisis period, the consensus view was that the Fed would proceed to raise interest rates between two to four times in 2016. But here we are roughly a full year later and we are still waiting for the first rate hike in 2016. It seems all but certain (at least right now) that the Fed will finally sneak in a rate hike in December before the buzzer sounds on 2016. But what is more notable is how ambitious the consensus view has become once again surrounding how the Fed is likely to proceed in 2017. And just as I did at this time last year heading into 2016, I have a decidedly different view on the path for interest rates today going into 2017.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.