Long May You Run

Upon awakening early this morning to find an unfamiliar color other than green gracing my stock market screen, it seemed worthwhile to revisit the favorite foil of so many stock market bulls but also the friend of so many seeking true portfolio diversification. What is the latest outlook for the long-term U.S. Treasury market?

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Mystery Stock Theater 3000

It is almost as if the stock market itself has been imprisoned on the Satellite of Love for the past eight years. No matter what bad economic or market related movie is set before investors, stocks have shown the relentless ability to laugh it off while continuing to travel deeper into the universe of new all-time highs. And while risks continue to accumulate as each new bad geopolitical, economic and market data related movie increases the potential that stocks may finally go insane and capitulate to the downside, the fact remains that stocks continue to effortlessly riff to the upside in the meantime. All of this leads to an important worthwhile question – can we reasonably expect the economic and market “mysteries” that continue to confound both investors and central bankers alike to eventually propel the S&P 500 Index higher to 3000 and beyond? And if so, when?

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Field Of Stock Market Dreams

Such has been the premise of policy makers throughout the post financial crisis period. Plant ample and continuous liquidity seeds into the financial system, and watch over time as it grows into abundant low cost capital that is harvested by the market system to fund capital expenditures and economic growth. Increased profitability will subsequently follow, fostering wage gains and renewed economic prosperity. Sounds beautiful, doesn’t it. Unfortunately, thinking that something should or even may happen because of certain actions may increase the odds of success, but it does not guarantee it. For the laws of unintended consequences have an uncanny way of intervening to result in an entirely different outcome than originally intended or expected.

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Don’t Believe The Hype

It was not that long ago that Amazon shook the retail world with its acquisition of Whole Foods. The grocery store world was supposedly changing for good with the entry of the online retail giant into the highly competitive bricks-and-mortar grocery business. But with a few months under our belts now since Amazon closed its Whole Foods merger with great media fanfare, it is worthwhile to check in to see how the world has actually changed.

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Today’s Bull Market Will Not Die On Euphoria

Today’s bull market will not die on euphoria. That’s not to say that there hasn’t been more than enough optimism to go around among U.S. stock investors for the last many years now. And this optimism may very well continue for the foreseeable future. But the euphoric blow off top that so many investors believe must take place before this bull market finally dies appears unlikely this time around.

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