Corporate Earnings Go Up In Smoke

How quickly things change. It was just two weeks ago that corporate earnings on the S&P 500 Index was coasting toward its first truly strong quarter of corporate earnings growth in more than two years. But as the saying goes, it’s not over until it’s over. And the last two weeks have put a major dent in the positive outlook resulting from corporate earnings for the broader market.

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What Would Make Me Bullish

I have been bearish on the stock market throughout the post-crisis period. This fact raises a perfectly reasonable question. What exactly would have to take place to change this view and make me bullish on the stock market?

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Just Not Buying It

The Fed has nobody else to blame but themselves. They have succeeded in rallying the stock market beyond all imagination during the post-crisis period, never mind the fact that the wealth generated never really worked its way through to the real economy. But despite their repeated efforts to try and convince the markets that they may raise interest rates as “fairly soon” as their next meeting, the markets are just not buying it.

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What It Means To Be Bearish

“Bullish” and “bearish” are adjectives that are often used to define different types of investors. But just because someone is bullish or bearish, it is not necessarily a determinant of how they are invested. For these descriptions are not investment strategies in and of themselves. Instead, they inform how an investor is viewing and managing risk associated with their strategy and asset allocation at any given point in time. This is an important distinction, particularly as investors position their portfolios for the months and years ahead.

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Overbought Is Overwrought

The S&P 500 Index is overbought. This is a situation when stock prices have risen too fast over a short-term period of time and may be susceptible to a pullback as a result. And the S&P 500 Index is currently as overbought as it has been in over a decade. But just because stocks are overbought does not mean that a sustained decline is likely to follow. In fact, stocks can not only remain overbought for an extended time, but they often find themselves pushing even further to the upside through any fleeting pullbacks or periods of consolidation in the immediate days, weeks and months that follow.

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