Beyond The Final Frontier

The second longest bull market in history has been a tremendous ride. But like all good things, it too will someday come to an end. And I have been of the long-held view that the relentless post crisis rally has been built on the sand of monetary stimulus instead of the rock of sustainable economic growth. As a result, I believe the markets require one final bear market cleansing to wash out the remaining excesses and finally arrive at the dawn of a new great secular bull market phase.  While I have spent a great deal of time focusing on what the next cyclical bear market will look like and how it will unfold, I believe it is now becoming increasingly worthwhile to begin considering what some of the new bullish opportunity sets that may evolve along the way as we move toward the cyclical bull market peak, through the next cyclical bear market and beyond toward this new secular bull market dawn.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

The Era Of Monetary Morphine

It has been the mantra for many during the post financial crisis period. Trust in our global central bankers. They are wise and have insights into the interworkings of the global economy and financial system that we could not otherwise imagine. As they saying often goes – what do they know that we don’t know? And so it has been in the decade since the outbreak of the financial crisis. Despite what continue to be completely unprecedented and extraordinary monetary policy actions, we should put all of our trust in the central banks to keep our investment portfolios rising and their values safe and sound. But the effective reality remains – we’re doin’ morphine.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Time To Change

The U.S. Federal Reserve has convened its much anticipated annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo. The event, which has taken place each year since 1978, brings together prominent policy makers from around to discuss and opine on the key issues facing the U.S. and global economy. Given that it has often been a forum for the Fed to lay the groundwork for any substantive changes in its policy course, what has been particularly notable during the kick off of this year’s gathering is the intensity of the coverage in the mainstream media about the Fed’s past missteps and the changes needed for its future direction.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Sauce For The Goose

Investors have been mulling the potential demise of the bond market for years. And after a 35-year bull market run in Treasuries, at least some sort of sustained reversal in interest rates should not be ruled out in the coming years. But what sometimes accompanies these dire predictions for the bond market is an equally rosy outlook for the stock market. While the stock market emerging unscathed from a bond market rout would certainly be a nice development, it is far more likely that an unraveling of the bond market goose would likely spill all over onto the stock market gander.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Ebb Tide

The tide has certainly come rushing in for a select group of asset classes in 2016. Their sharp upward climb has been inspired by a shift in monetary policy sentiment from the U.S. Federal Reserve from hawkish to dovish starting in January. But after planting a rewarding kiss on investor shores, will these very same asset classes roll back out to sea once the Fed resumes a more hawkish policy stance?

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.


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