4 Reasons Why We Are Still In A Bear Market

The idea that we are currently in a bear market is absolutely ludicrous. At least it is at first glance. After all, stocks have gained +177% since early March 2009 lows and finished Wednesday with the S&P 500 closing at a fresh new all-time high. Make no mistake; we are currently in the midst of a still raging and absolutely relentless cyclical bull market. But despite all of the stock market glory over the last five years, this cyclical bull market is still taking place in an ongoing secular bear market that began at the turn of the millennium thirteen years ago.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.


  1. Interesting piece. I just dont understand how can be in a bear market when the S&P is past its all time high. It makes no sense to me, I think we could see a good correction but the easy money should see markets up again for a couple of years

  2. Hello jbmarwood,

    Thanks for your comment on my article. And I completely agree with you from a cyclical perspective that we remain in a bull market from a cyclical perspective and this has the potential to continue as long as the U.S. Federal Reserve remains accommodative with monetary policy. But the fact that much of the market gains over the last couple of years in particular have been driven by valuation expansion and not by underlying fundamentals is worrisome, particularly given that corporate revenues and earnings have been virtually flat for roughly two years. This suggests that the market has been propelled to new highs by something other than the underlying economic and market realities, which history has shown is a disconnect that can continue for extended periods but typically ends badly. Hopefully growth can pick up enough to support the market at these levels, but the higher the market rises, the more difficult it will become for this outcome to take place. And now that the Fed is in the process of working to end its QE3 stimulus program, the market will need to begin showing this growth to help fill the void. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

    Thanks again for your comment. I appreciate it!

  3. It is not bad to be bear as one stock that is treated as junk stock one day give u price of good iron. Stocks that are opposite to market should be purchased as they will give definitely a good result when market plunged down and these stock will move upward. So bear also earn profit at large scale. Take taste of every journey.

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