Stock market volatility is continuing for yet another week. The beginning of the week on Tuesday saw an impressive burst to the upside, which was certainly fun to watch but is not indicative of a market that is feeling well. For as the next day on Wednesday showed, such rallies are typically accompanied by days where stocks are down by a comparable amount. To this point, stocks have posted moves in either direction of 2% or more in eight out of the last fifteen trading days, with five of these swings headed to the downside. Overall, stocks are violently indecisive right now, and it is worthwhile to consider exactly where future swings will take us not necessarily tomorrow or the next day but in the weeks and months ahead. In working to answer this question, it is instructive to explore through market history to see what evidence from the past we can juxtapose against today. And when carrying out this exercise, we quickly see that the events impacting today’s market have only taken place in a select number of instances over the past 90 years.
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