It was right around this time last year that expectations were building about Fed policy in 2016. On the brink of raising interest rates in December 2015 for the first time in the post financial crisis period, the consensus view was that the Fed would proceed to raise interest rates between two to four times in 2016. But here we are roughly a full year later and we are still waiting for the first rate hike in 2016. It seems all but certain (at least right now) that the Fed will finally sneak in a rate hike in December before the buzzer sounds on 2016. But what is more notable is how ambitious the consensus view has become once again surrounding how the Fed is likely to proceed in 2017. And just as I did at this time last year heading into 2016, I have a decidedly different view on the path for interest rates today going into 2017.
Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.