2018 Contrarian Outlook: Easy Rider

A conventional view about what is likely to take place in capital markets has already formed for the coming year. In a few words, corporate earnings will continue to rise helped by tax cuts, pushing stock prices, economic growth, and interest rates higher, while volatility will rise from record lows as global central bankers wind down monetary stimulus. But if the post crisis period has taught us anything, today’s markets are anything but conventional. As a result, it is worthwhile as we look ahead to the coming year to take a counter view and consider what might take place if conventional investor beliefs are put to the test in the coming year. These are not necessarily base case expectations, but instead are outcomes on which measurable probability may be assigned, thus they warrant consideration. So let’s head out east on the road for a ride through the year ahead and the unusual experiences it might bring.

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