Hanging Curve

It is a message we keep hearing about in the mainstream financial media today. Bonds yields are on the rise. The optimists attribute the increase to a budding phase of accelerating economic growth and the higher inflation that comes with it. The more skeptical among us believe that an inevitable outbreak of higher inflation will induce the Fed to tighten more quickly than currently expected. Despite their differing views, both leading narratives rely on the key underlying premise that inflation is going higher. But what about a third outcome? What if higher inflation never comes to pass? And what if this takes place at the same time that the economy sputters while the Fed is still raising rates? What then?

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