I think the S&P 500 should be at 1900 today. Except that I don’t. Because if the stock market “should” be trading -33% below its closing level on Monday, then it would be, or at least somewhere close to these levels. Same with bond yields. I keep hearing for so many years now about how bond yields should be so much higher than they actually are today. But instead of making bold proclamations that the stock or bond market should be trading somewhere vastly different from where they are presently, we are better off taking the time to understand and explore why stocks and bonds persist in their current state and what may cause them to finally begin to deviate from the patterns that they have been following for so long now.
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