I’m hearing a lot about the strength of the U.S. economy lately. Just this afternoon, I heard one pundit on the radio describe the U.S. economy as “stellar.” Another said it’s “booming.” Knowing that the economy is an important determinant of market returns over time, it’s worthwhile to take a closer look. Is the U.S. economy really so strong right now?

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U.S. stocks have had a fantastic year in 2019. Overall, the benchmark S&P 500 Index is poised to finish the year up 30%-plus.  This great year must be considered in a broader context, however. It’s worth remembering that U.S. stocks bottomed on Christmas Eve exactly one year ago after having plunged more than -20% peak to trough in 2018 Q4. Thus, much of the 2019 advance in the S&P 500 was a recovery of the decline that preceded it at the end of 2018. After trading effectively flat from the end of January 2018 through the start of October 2019, U.S. stocks have staked fresh new ground in 2019 Q4 with a definitive move to the upside.

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From September 16, 2019

The bond bull market has sent investors on a wild ride as of late. After yields plunged sharply (and prices soared) through August, U.S. Treasury yields have sharply reversed higher (and prices have fallen) thus far in September. What should investors expect from this bucking bond bull going forward?

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