So, many investors hardly know today’s stock market. They think they do, because it’s been so pretty, happy, and nice to its many suitors for so long since that brief interruption known as the financial crisis ended a few years back. And many investors do think that they could really love the stock market this time around, never mind the fact that it has twice burned its past devotees by more than half over the last two decades. But not today’s investors. The stock market really loves us back this time and will never let us down again. Right? For those that have fallen in love for so long now, get ready for the crimson and clover that lies ahead.

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It is the mainstream financial media narrative du jour. After years of relatively benign pricing pressures during the post crisis period, we are now entering a phase of sustainably higher inflation. This notion has raised the specter that the U.S. Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates more quickly than expected, has sent U.S. Treasury yields higher, and has shaken the U.S. stock market to the core over the past two weeks. But while the narrative certainly makes good sense, a key question remains critically important to ask. Are we really seeing any signs of the rise in inflation that so many have already assumed as given? And what does the true answer to this question mean for our stock and bond allocations?

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