The U.S. stock bull market is alive and well.  While a breakout by the S&P 500 Index above its January peak remains elusive, it seems only a matter of time before the fresh new all-time high confetti is once again falling from the rafters. But underneath the market surface, a disconcerting trend with corporate earnings began developing a few months ago and is continuing to pick up steam. As stocks chase new all-time highs, are they doing so long after the corporate profit music has died?

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I think the S&P 500 should be at 1900 today. Except that I don’t. Because if the stock market “should” be trading -33% below its closing level on Monday, then it would be, or at least somewhere close to these levels. Same with bond yields. I keep hearing for so many years now about how bond yields should be so much higher than they actually are today. But instead of making bold proclamations that the stock or bond market should be trading somewhere vastly different from where they are presently, we are better off taking the time to understand and explore why stocks and bonds persist in their current state and what may cause them to finally begin to deviate from the patterns that they have been following for so long now.

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