The Fed Goes Bold As The Bull Grows Old

The Fed goes bold. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve emerged from their latest FOMC meeting on monetary policy. The fact that they decided to raise interest rates for the fifth time in its last six press conference meetings was already accepted as given. Instead, Jay Powell continued to make a splash in his relatively new role as Fed Chair by striking a bold tone about the course of monetary policy going forward. It’s full steam ahead for the Fed, which has important implications for portfolio strategy for the summer and the year ahead.

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Seeing Markets Through Rose Colored Glasses

Love is an intoxicating thing. So is investing. But love can blind us to the reality unfolding around us. And when it comes to love and/or investing, it is often the things that we cannot see or do not take the time to truly understand that can ultimately lead to our undoing.

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You Just Don’t Get It!

You just don’t get it! This is a common refrain that gets uttered during periods of market excitement. Asset prices become dislocated to the upside beyond any reasonable underlying fundamental reason. And when such extreme pricing behavior is brought into light, it is often refuted with the exclamation that “you just don’t get it” followed by a discussion about effectively why this time is different in that extreme prices are not only fully justified but should continue to rise to the stars. Everyone loves a good party. But no matter how much fun everyone might be having, all good parties always come to an end. And the more epic the party, the more painful the subsequent hangover often turns out to be.

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To Everything There Is A Season

Lessons from long ago remain unlearned. If kings from thousands of years ago were well-versed in such principles, why are they repeatedly lost on policymakers and investors today? Not everything can be awesome all of the time. And for global capital markets, now is a time to cast away, not to keep. Now is a time to break down, not build up. Now is a time to tear, not sew. For forcibly denying the natural passage of these shared contrasts results in imbalances that ultimately come with staggering self-correcting costs.

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The King Of Pain Exacts His Revenge

The king has returned. Following a year in exile in 2017, the U.S. dollar has bounced back with a vengeance. And its recent and accelerating rise is threatening to slay one of history’s longest stock bull markets. Stock investors should pay close attention to the imminent and rising risk from the king of pain.

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