Euphoria Is Already Upon Us

It is an important point that is frequently raised by investors in defense of the second longest bull market history. For all of its gains since the calming of the financial crisis so many years ago, we have yet to see the euphoric blow off top in stock prices that marks the end of a bull market. In fact, quite a bit of skepticism remains in this market today despite how far it has risen. As a result, we are nowhere near the extreme sentiment levels that would mark the end of a bull market. Thus, stay long stocks. If only it was that easy, for it is likely that the euphoria is already upon us. The key is knowing where to look for it.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Silent Ambiguity

Where have all the Fed Board Governors gone? Where are the Fed’s regional bank Presidents and their seemingly endless speaking tour to muse about the future direction of monetary policy with every tick of the S&P 500? Of course, it is the heart of summer, so it’s a good time for an FOMC member to get some much needed time off. And how many conferences are happening in early August for the Fed to speak at anyway. But just because the Fed is quiet right now does not mean that the chance for a rate hike at their September meeting is not still very much on the table. In fact, the market today may be vastly underestimating the potential for a rate hike coming out of their next FOMC meeting on September 20-21.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

The Stock Market’s Seedy Underbelly

Much has been made about the fact that the S&P 500 Index continues to climb despite the poor state of corporate earnings over the past two years. But for anyone including myself that thinks that the data associated with the large cap S&P 500 Index looks bad, it is worthwhile to dig deeper into the seedy underbelly of the U.S. stock market. For the further down one goes, the dramatically worse the current fundamental state of the market appears.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Down Goes Q3!

The latest quarterly earnings results for more than 91% of companies in the S&P 500 Index have now been officially reported.  And the numbers are starting to look downright ugly.  For what was supposed to be a quarter that would mark a turning point in the prolonged annual earnings decline dating back to mid 2014 has turned out to be another corporate bloodletting.  The bulls may believe they are investing today for an improvement in earnings in the future, but unfortunately the data is telling an entirely different story with each passing week.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Through The Eye Of The Needle

For those of you that have read my articles on Seeking Alpha, you are likely well aware by now that I am not only bearish, but have been so for some time. Given the emphasis on risk management in my investment process, this has led me to write a number of articles focused on protecting against downside risk. But a commenter on a recent article raised an excellent question. To paraphrase, what would be the right set of developments that could lead today’s market to become the longest in history?

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

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