Beware The Inflation Trap

It is the mainstream financial media narrative du jour. After years of relatively benign pricing pressures during the post crisis period, we are now entering a phase of sustainably higher inflation. This notion has raised the specter that the U.S. Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates more quickly than expected, has sent U.S. Treasury yields higher, and has shaken the U.S. stock market to the core over the past two weeks. But while the narrative certainly makes good sense, a key question remains critically important to ask. Are we really seeing any signs of the rise in inflation that so many have already assumed as given? And what does the true answer to this question mean for our stock and bond allocations?

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The Bond Bull Market Is Over

The financial media headlines have been dominated over the past week by the latest bold declarations. Treasury yields are on the rise, and “the bond bull market is over!” Except that it’s not over. Not even close to starting to be over as a matter of fact. At least not yet. For despite its extraordinarily advanced age and recent fall coupled with the bold proclamations from some notable bond gurus, the 37-year old bond bull market still remains very much alive today.

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Eric Parnell Positions For 2018: Watch The Dollar

From Seeking Alpha:  Eric Parnell has written more than 1,000 Seeking Alpha articles, each providing readers with his thoughtful, yet direct, approach to market analysis. In this year’s interview with Executive Editor George Moriarty, the author of The Universal shares a bullish short- to medium-term outlook that delivers his usual circumspection, with some interesting surprises. Enjoy!

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Has The Plunge Begun?

It was one of the key early warning events that took place ahead of previous major bull market peaks. And despite the continued resilience of stock prices and proclamations of new all-time highs on some of the benchmark indices as recently as Thursday, we have seen some notable splashes on this front in recent weeks. It is the flattening of the yield curve toward inversion. And it is worthwhile to consider the following: has the long-anticipated plunge in the yield curve finally begun?

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Long May You Run

Upon awakening early this morning to find an unfamiliar color other than green gracing my stock market screen, it seemed worthwhile to revisit the favorite foil of so many stock market bulls but also the friend of so many seeking true portfolio diversification. What is the latest outlook for the long-term U.S. Treasury market?

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