Has The Plunge Begun?

It was one of the key early warning events that took place ahead of previous major bull market peaks. And despite the continued resilience of stock prices and proclamations of new all-time highs on some of the benchmark indices as recently as Thursday, we have seen some notable splashes on this front in recent weeks. It is the flattening of the yield curve toward inversion. And it is worthwhile to consider the following: has the long-anticipated plunge in the yield curve finally begun?

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Long May You Run

Upon awakening early this morning to find an unfamiliar color other than green gracing my stock market screen, it seemed worthwhile to revisit the favorite foil of so many stock market bulls but also the friend of so many seeking true portfolio diversification. What is the latest outlook for the long-term U.S. Treasury market?

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The Only Thing That Will End This Bull Market

No, not that bull market in stocks. This bull market that has been going on for roughly four times longer in bonds. Talk has picked up again recently by analysts casually talking about the various reasons why the bull market in bonds that started all the way back in the early 1980s is suddenly about to end. And while the logic behind these arguments certainly seems sound, the reality remains that there is only one thing and one thing only that will end the bull market in bonds. And this threat is nowhere to be found at the present time.

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Dancing About The Yield Curve

It is one of the greatest aspects of capital markets. Investing is just as much an art as it is a science. And unlike many of the arts that can be discussed in terms of ordinary life experiences, investing along with the economics and finance that are underlying it are often complex, multi-dimensional across space and time, sometimes nebulous and very much subject to the interpretation of each individual participant in the market place.  So despite being a science grounded in the historically quantitative and definitive that have has taken place in the past and present, investing is just as much if not more so an art in interpreting this music from the past in singing about the future.

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Stayin’ Alive

The U.S. stock bull market is still alive. But after more than eight years and with stocks trading at historically high premiums despite a persistently sluggish economy, many investors are left to wonder after trading days like Thursday how swiftly and badly the bull market will finally end as well as the ferocity of the subsequent bear market that follows. How will today’s stock investors know that the bull market is finally over? And once they know, will it be too late to do anything about it?

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