Why The Next Recession Matters So Much

From June 28, 2019 The U.S. Federal Reserve is on the record. It will stop at nothing to prevent the next recession. But given that recessions historically have taken place once every three years on average at least until the last couple of decades and we somehow survived as an economy, it is reason toContinue reading “Why The Next Recession Matters So Much”

Bond. Long Bond

From June 27, 2019 The long bond has been strong as of late. After trading sideways for nearly two years, long-term U.S. Treasuries have burst to the upside. Since peaking at a yield of 3.45% at the start of November 2018, the 30-Year U.S. Treasury yield has been falling ever since. In the last fewContinue reading “Bond. Long Bond”

Beware The Yield Curve

From June 26, 2019 The yield curve is a big deal in 2019. While it always garnered a fair amount of attention from wonkier analysts in the past, the yield curve has suddenly become the fave indicator of the investment hoi polloi today. Lately, one cannot get through a day of market reading without atContinue reading “Beware The Yield Curve”

Silver Linings Playbook

From June 23, 2019 Gold has been shining bright as of late. After fading for much of 2019 since mid-February following an initially strong start to the year, gold has suddenly burst to life over the past four weeks. Since bottoming on May 21 at $1,269 per ounce, gold has surged by more than +10%.Continue reading “Silver Linings Playbook”

Putting Out The Fire With Gasoline

From June 20, 2019 The Federal Reserve is at it again. It’s not necessarily that he means to be. In fact, I think he actually means quite well. Instead, the fact that he is so dangerous simply comes with the position. So much absolute power. So little oversight and accountability. So many cheer him whenContinue reading “Putting Out The Fire With Gasoline”