The Dark Decade (Or The Investment Renaissance)

Stocks are expensive. Yes, we can debate at length about whether today’s premium valuations are justified or not. But they are still expensive today. And if history is any guide, this does not bode well for stock market returns in the decade ahead. But just because the stock market itself may not be setting up to do well over the next decade is not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, it may present an important time for rediscovery for what is starting to become a lost art in stock investing today.

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Crimson And Clover

So, many investors hardly know today’s stock market. They think they do, because it’s been so pretty, happy, and nice to its many suitors for so long since that brief interruption known as the financial crisis ended a few years back. And many investors do think that they could really love the stock market this time around, never mind the fact that it has twice burned its past devotees by more than half over the last two decades. But not today’s investors. The stock market really loves us back this time and will never let us down again. Right? For those that have fallen in love for so long now, get ready for the crimson and clover that lies ahead.

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Beware The Inflation Trap

It is the mainstream financial media narrative du jour. After years of relatively benign pricing pressures during the post crisis period, we are now entering a phase of sustainably higher inflation. This notion has raised the specter that the U.S. Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates more quickly than expected, has sent U.S. Treasury yields higher, and has shaken the U.S. stock market to the core over the past two weeks. But while the narrative certainly makes good sense, a key question remains critically important to ask. Are we really seeing any signs of the rise in inflation that so many have already assumed as given? And what does the true answer to this question mean for our stock and bond allocations?

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The Bond Bull Market Is Over

The financial media headlines have been dominated over the past week by the latest bold declarations. Treasury yields are on the rise, and “the bond bull market is over!” Except that it’s not over. Not even close to starting to be over as a matter of fact. At least not yet. For despite its extraordinarily advanced age and recent fall coupled with the bold proclamations from some notable bond gurus, the 37-year old bond bull market still remains very much alive today.

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Eric Parnell Positions For 2018: Watch The Dollar

From Seeking Alpha:  Eric Parnell has written more than 1,000 Seeking Alpha articles, each providing readers with his thoughtful, yet direct, approach to market analysis. In this year’s interview with Executive Editor George Moriarty, the author of The Universal shares a bullish short- to medium-term outlook that delivers his usual circumspection, with some interesting surprises. Enjoy!

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