Only Fools Rush In

The U.S. stock market is no stranger to rallying in the month of July. Going back over the past 25 years of market history, we have seen 13 instances, or more than half of the time, where the U.S. stock market as measured by the S&P 500 Index pushing higher in one way or another either through the months of June and July or starting sometime in the month of June into July.  But like so many summer loves, the euphoria of stock market gains have almost always been followed by the ache of stocks parting ways back to the downside.

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10 Things I Hate About Stocks This Summer

I hate U.S. stocks this summer. It’s not to say that the asset class still does not have its place in a broadly diversified asset allocation strategy. But the increasingly sweltering heat on U.S. stocks as we move through the summer months is bound to cause some measuring melting activity. The following are 10 things I hate about U.S. stocks as we move into the summer months.

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The Next Bear Market Will Be Ruthless

It has been almost nine years since the outbreak of the financial crisis. And it has been more than seven years since the start of the most recent bull market. Stocks have been impressively resilient in the face of every test during the post crisis period thanks in large part to the seemingly endless support from monetary policy makers including the U.S. Federal Reserve. This has helped foster an environment where many investors are not only comfortable but have swagger about owning stocks at historically high valuations despite chronically slow growth. As a result, the Fed has helped create bubbles not only in asset prices but investor expectations that the principal value of their investments will be upheld no matter what challenges befall the economy. Unfortunately, just like the bursting of the tech bubble and the onset of the financial crisis, the next recession will finally come. And when it does, it has the potential to be absolutely ruthless for investors.

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The Weekend At Bernie’s Bull Market

The financial media has been filled with anniversary celebrations. So the party banners have proclaimed, the bull market in stocks has just celebrated its seventh anniversary. But will history view this celebration in the same way when reflecting back years from now? For while the bull market may still seem to be alive and well in the eyes of many investors and the financial media, in reality it may have already died along ago. And for those who may be wondering, such celebrations are one of the many reasons why so many investors unwittingly find themselves trapped in the clutches of a bear market with few reasonable options to escape.

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Monetary Policy Day Traders

Central bankers need to finally take a breather. On Wednesday, February 17, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President and CEO James Bullard took to the podium at the CFA Society St. Louis to discuss his latest views on monetary policy normalization. What was striking in his speech was the dramatic change in his views on the normalization of monetary policy. Has so much really changed over the past month? Or are central bankers simply becoming as itchy at the trigger as a reactive stock day trader?

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