Why The Next Recession Matters So Much

From June 28, 2019

The U.S. Federal Reserve is on the record. It will stop at nothing to prevent the next recession. But given that recessions historically have taken place once every three years on average at least until the last couple of decades and we somehow survived as an economy, it is reason to question why preventing the recession today is so important. The answer? The fate of the U.S. stock market hangs in the balance.

Please click on the link to read more on Seeking Alpha

Bond. Long Bond

From June 27, 2019

The long bond has been strong as of late. After trading sideways for nearly two years, long-term U.S. Treasuries have burst to the upside. Since peaking at a yield of 3.45% at the start of November 2018, the 30-Year U.S. Treasury yield has been falling ever since. In the last few trading days, it has dropped as low as 2.50%.

Please click on the link to read more on Seeking Alpha

Beware The Yield Curve

From June 26, 2019

The yield curve is a big deal in 2019. While it always garnered a fair amount of attention from wonkier analysts in the past, the yield curve has suddenly become the fave indicator of the investment hoi polloi today. Lately, one cannot get through a day of market reading without at least a few references related to the dire recession and bear market warnings associated with the yield curve that first inverted late last year. But how much should investors really be relying on the yield curve for a useful read on the market in 2019?

Please click on the link to read more on Seeking Alpha

Silver Linings Playbook

From June 23, 2019

Gold has been shining bright as of late. After fading for much of 2019 since mid-February following an initially strong start to the year, gold has suddenly burst to life over the past four weeks. Since bottoming on May 21 at $1,269 per ounce, gold has surged by more than +10%. In the process, the yellow metal managed to trade above $1,400 per ounce for the first time in nearly six years. This marks gold’s latest upside progress, having now increased by roughly +34% since bottoming in late 2015 at $1,045 per ounce.

Please click on the link to read more on Seeking Alpha

Putting Out The Fire With Gasoline

From June 20, 2019

The Federal Reserve is at it again. It’s not necessarily that he means to be. In fact, I think he actually means quite well. Instead, the fact that he is so dangerous simply comes with the position. So much absolute power. So little oversight and accountability. So many cheer him when times are good. So many turn their desperate eyes to him when times get tough. Mild mannered and careful with his words, but decisive and dangerous with his actions. Who is this most dangerous man in the world? Why none other than the Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Please click on the link to read more on Seeking Alpha