Dreams Vs. Reality

What a week it has been. Capital markets have traveled on a roller coaster ride since the early morning hours on Wednesday following the U.S. Presidential election. As market events unfolded, the airwaves were filled with analysts, many of which were opining on all of the positives that would now follow in support of rising stock prices going forward. While it may be tempting to take action in your portfolio in the midst of such extreme market moves these last few days, it will continue to be best to proceed with caution. For all we have heard thus far is a chorus of dreams for the economy and markets sung by many so called experts. But as is almost always the case, the eventual reality may end up being quite different than the market nirvana some have been envisioning in recent days. And even if we eventually find ourselves in a new economic utopia, it is very likely to be a bumpy road along the way.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

What Is Behind Door Number 3?

We are now less than eight weeks away from the 2016 U.S. Presidential election. And the latest polling data indicates that the race remains too close to call. But what is notable is the absolute numbers in polls, as both candidates are struggling to move above 40% of the vote. Exactly where are the remaining 20% of voters hiding out? Some have yet to decide, while others are actively considering throwing their support this election season behind a third party candidate. With this in mind, what exactly is behind door number 3 (or 4)? And what, if any, are the implications for the outcome of the 2016 U.S. Presidential election on financial markets?

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Another Victory For The Establishment

For all of the talk about the rise of the anti-establishment far left and far right in many parts of the world, the global establishment scored another important victory on Sunday following the parliamentary elections in Japan. For not only did the Liberal Democratic party under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe maintain control of the upper house of the National Diet of Japan, they increased their hold on power. The global establishment is alive and well, and investors should anticipate another round of stimulus from the world’s third-largest economy.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

Why The Veepstakes Matters So Much In 2016

The presumptive nominees for both major political parties have been decided. Hillary Clinton has secured enough delegates for the Democratic party nod when her party meets in Philadelphia on July 25-28. And Donald Trump will be carrying the GOP flag barring a mutiny at their upcoming convention on July 18-21. Now that the primary season is over, attention is now turning to whom these presumptive nominees will be selecting as their running mates for the general election in November. While these selections have always mattered in the past, they are of particularly meaningful importance in 2016. Thus from an investor and market perspective, those that are ultimately selected warrant a closer investigation than usual during this election cycle to understand exactly what their fiscal policies would likely be if they eventually found themselves inserted into the Oval Office.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.

The Next Bear Market Will Be Ruthless

It has been almost nine years since the outbreak of the financial crisis. And it has been more than seven years since the start of the most recent bull market. Stocks have been impressively resilient in the face of every test during the post crisis period thanks in large part to the seemingly endless support from monetary policy makers including the U.S. Federal Reserve. This has helped foster an environment where many investors are not only comfortable but have swagger about owning stocks at historically high valuations despite chronically slow growth. As a result, the Fed has helped create bubbles not only in asset prices but investor expectations that the principal value of their investments will be upheld no matter what challenges befall the economy. Unfortunately, just like the bursting of the tech bubble and the onset of the financial crisis, the next recession will finally come. And when it does, it has the potential to be absolutely ruthless for investors.

Please click on the link to read more of my article on Seeking Alpha.