Hanging Curve

It is a message we keep hearing about in the mainstream financial media today. Bonds yields are on the rise. The optimists attribute the increase to a budding phase of accelerating economic growth and the higher inflation that comes with it. The more skeptical among us believe that an inevitable outbreak of higher inflation will induce the Fed to tighten more quickly than currently expected. Despite their differing views, both leading narratives rely on the key underlying premise that inflation is going higher. But what about a third outcome? What if higher inflation never comes to pass? And what if this takes place at the same time that the economy sputters while the Fed is still raising rates? What then?

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Everything Is Awesome!

Animal spirits have been unleashed!  After nearly eight years of malaise in the wake of the calming of the financial crisis, it seems that the slumbering global economy has finally awoken.  Except that it hasn’t, at least not yet.

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I’ll Believe It When I See It

Talk of inflation has found its way back into capital markets. Inflation, of course, has important implications for asset prices as well as the future direction of global monetary policy. While it makes for an interesting narrative du jour, is there any substance to the idea that prices might start moving sustainably higher?

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Gold: Tipping The Scales

It is worthwhile to begin by stating the following: I am meaningfully bullish on the long-term outlook for gold, and I have been for some time. Gold offers protection against price instability, whether it is inflation or deflation, and also provides a hard asset alternative global reserve currency versus the various paper fiat currencies that are backed by nothing more than the full faith and credit of their issuing governments and have been relentlessly distorted by unprecedentedly aggressive monetary policy by global central bankers during the post crisis period. In short, gold offers an ideal portfolio hedge and a lot of long-term appeal.

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A Trade 35 Years In The Making

It has been a trade that has been 35 years in the making. It is the relentless bull market run not in stocks but instead in the U.S. Treasury market. And despite a three and a half decade run, this impressive upside opportunity is showing no signs of stopping as we move into the second half of the current decade. For those with a long-term view in mind, exactly where is the best place to get on board?

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