What Would Make Me Bullish

I have been bearish on the stock market throughout the post-crisis period. This fact raises a perfectly reasonable question. What exactly would have to take place to change this view and make me bullish on the stock market?

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Just Not Buying It

The Fed has nobody else to blame but themselves. They have succeeded in rallying the stock market beyond all imagination during the post-crisis period, never mind the fact that the wealth generated never really worked its way through to the real economy. But despite their repeated efforts to try and convince the markets that they may raise interest rates as “fairly soon” as their next meeting, the markets are just not buying it.

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What It Means To Be Bearish

“Bullish” and “bearish” are adjectives that are often used to define different types of investors. But just because someone is bullish or bearish, it is not necessarily a determinant of how they are invested. For these descriptions are not investment strategies in and of themselves. Instead, they inform how an investor is viewing and managing risk associated with their strategy and asset allocation at any given point in time. This is an important distinction, particularly as investors position their portfolios for the months and years ahead.

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Overbought Is Overwrought

The S&P 500 Index is overbought. This is a situation when stock prices have risen too fast over a short-term period of time and may be susceptible to a pullback as a result. And the S&P 500 Index is currently as overbought as it has been in over a decade. But just because stocks are overbought does not mean that a sustained decline is likely to follow. In fact, stocks can not only remain overbought for an extended time, but they often find themselves pushing even further to the upside through any fleeting pullbacks or periods of consolidation in the immediate days, weeks and months that follow.

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Springtime Rally?

Stocks might be gearing up for a surprise springtime rally. What might be the catalyst even though stocks continue to trade at historically high premiums? Given the Bizarro world in which we continue to operate over the past couple of years, the eventual spark for an upside rally may at first seem counterintuitive. But then again, for some it may be far less surprising than most might think.

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